First Solar, Inc.
DELTAX CAPITAL | PUBLIC COMPANY RESEARCH
SEPTEMBER 12 2026
First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) manufactures thin-film solar modules using cadmium telluride (CdTe) technology. This report examines whether its manufacturing advantages can sustain attractive cash returns as existing contracts turn over and U.S. production credits phase out.
WHAT WE FOUND.
Contracts support near-term production. June 2026 backlog totaled 45.1 GW, with integrated U.S. production substantially committed through 2028. Longer-term value depends on replacement orders, retained prices, and contract performance.
Production credits account for much of the modeled value. Modeled grant receipts represented 75.1% of base enterprise value, including future credits still to be earned and collected. Recognizing credit income and receiving cash are different steps.
Manufacturing progress must withstand competition. Integrated production and CuRe technology support differentiation. Maintaining that advantage requires cost improvements and continued investment as qualified domestic competitors expand.
The base discounted cash flow valuation was $143.34 per share at a 10% required return, compared with the $209.03 closing price on September 11, 2026. The base case models positive cash generation after new production credits end; supporting the reference price under this framework requires stronger economics than the base case.
Read the full First Solar research report (PDF)
Prepared by Matthew Schaller, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, DeltaX Capital LLC, a South Carolina-registered investment adviser serving the Charleston area.
General, impersonal research; not individualized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. Valuation estimates are not price targets or predictions.